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US midterm elections will determine control of Congress: 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 35 state governorships at stake
Market's base case: Democrats expected to win over the House (must win net 3 seats), with chance of also flipping Senate from Republicans (Democrats need net 4-seat gain)
Democratic control could complicate new crypto legislation, but existing regulations may be harder to reverse.
Post-election reaction: Options and ETFs point to muted BTC moves; S&P 500 expected to move just 0.9% up/down; though oil and gold stand ready to react
Block Scholes: Bitcoin has always risen 1 year after previous three midterms, outperforming equities
Bloomberg survey (Oct 2-17, 2026): Surprise Republican sweep may send BTC back above $90k by year-end
Glassnode: Watch for key BTC support around $75k and $60k regions
Morgan Stanley: S&P 500 has risen over 6- to 12-month period following every US midterms since 1950
Fed policy outlook, oil's impact on inflation remain bigger market drivers beyond US midterms
The US midterm elections are here - and markets are watching closely.
On Tuesday, November 3rd, millions of Americans will vote on:
all 435 seats in the House of Representatives
35 seats (about one-third) in the Senate
Essentially, this midterm elections will determine control of Congress.
To be clear, this is not an election on who occupies the White House - US President Donald Trump's term is only set to end in January 2029.
ICYMI, yesterday (Mon, Nov 2nd), Bybit's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan held a livestream previewing the US midterm elections, and what it could mean for markets.
He was joined by Geo, Research Analyst at Block Scholes, and Frederick Theissen, Lead Analyst at Glassnode.
Here are some key questions that were addressed during that livestream hosted on X (@Bybit_Learn) and YouTube:
Who is expected to win the US midterm elections?
Democrats are favored to take control of the House of Representatives, with a chance of also wresting the Senate from Republicans.
According to prediction markets cited by Block Scholes, Democrats have:
around a 90% chance of winning the House
65–70% probability of capturing the Senate
On the flip side ...
A Republican victory in both chambers would therefore be a major surprise.
Such an outcome could strengthen President Donald Trump's ability to pursue his policy agenda, including measures that favor the crypto industry.
Note that the final official results may take days to determine, as officials process and count mail-in ballots and other votes.
Could the election derail crypto-friendly regulations?
A Democratic victory could complicate new legislation, but existing crypto regulations may be harder to reverse.
The GENIUS Act will remain intact - has already established important rules for stablecoins.
However, the CLARITY Act remains a key piece of unfinished business.
The CLARITY Act failed a key Senate vote back in mid-September, after which we wrote that its ...
"[CLARITY Act's] path forward now runs through the November US midterms, incoming Congress makeup could shape industry outlook"
Block Scholes's Geo believes that the bigger question may not be whether further crypto regulations arrive, but when they arrive and what the final rules will look like.
Are crypto traders expecting big price swings?
Not necessarily. Bitcoin's options market suggests traders are preparing for a relatively quiet election.
Block Scholes found that Bitcoin's implied volatility stood at around:
38% surrounding the 2026 midterms
vs.
63% surrounding the 2024 presidential elections
NOTE: Implied volatility measures how much traders expect prices to fluctuate, without predicting whether they will rise or fall.
Glassnode's Fred also highlighted declining Bitcoin ETF trading volumes, suggesting limited investor urgency ahead of the vote.
The takeaway:
Traders aren't positioning for election fireworks, although unexpected results could still trigger sharp moves.
Could Bitcoin surge above $90k after the elections?
A surprise Republican sweep could fuel a Bitcoin rally, although traders should also prepare for downside risks.
A Bloomberg survey between Oct 2-17, 2026 found that respondents expected Bitcoin to rebound above $90,000 by end-2026 if Republicans retained control of both chambers of Congress.
However, that survey was conducted before a recent major security incident for cryptos, which may have changed market sentiment.
Meanwhile, Glassnode's on-chain analysis highlights potential Bitcoin support around $70,000, followed by a significant cluster near $60,000.
Those $75k and $60k levels could help traders identify where Bitcoin's next major price battle unfolds.
The catch?
Some of that support comes from short-term holders, who may be quicker to sell when Bitcoin prices fall.
Also, selling pressure from longer-term BTC holders could also limit any potential rebound.
Post-Midterms: Which assets are analysts watching?
Geo at Block Scholes, as well as Glassnode's Fred, will keep their eyes primarily on the world's biggest and oldest cryptocurrency.
Block Scholes noted that "the history of midterms has been a very happy story to tell" for crypto, noting that ...
Bitcoin's gains one year post-midterm gains have outperformed equities over the past 3 midterm elections.
But BTC isn't the only asset worth watching.
The analysts featured in yesterday's livestream also cited US stocks, oil, and gold - these assets may offer equally important clues.
Although equity options are pricing in a relatively modest 0.9% move in either direction for the S&P 500 on November 4, it's shown a stunning trend 6- to 12-months out.
According to Morgan Stanley data cited by Bloomberg …
The S&P 500 has risen over the 6- to 12-month period following every US midterm election since 1950!
But remember: Past performance does not guarantee future gains.
According to Bybit's Han Tan, oil prices also deserve attention.
A Democratic-controlled Congress could constrain President Trump's ability to pursue protracted military action against Iran, potentially weighing down oil prices in the months ahead.
All 3 analysts featured in yesterday's livestream agreed that ...
Beyond politics, the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook remains a major driver of cryptos, stocks, currencies and commodities.
Bottom line
The election could create short-term trading opportunities, but the bigger market moves may come from what happens next.
READ MORE (published Mon, Nov 2):
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.
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