Here's why Gold has been moving sideways so far in September 2026.

• Gold has fallen 3.2% so far in Sept; stark contrast to Aug's near-10% surge

• Gold appeal waning after Sept 16th Fed rate hike, with markets predicting at least 3 more hikes

• Rising oil prices, stronger US dollar, and Treasury yields' surge to multi-decade highs also hurting gold

• Gold demand remains resilient among ETFs, China central bank, and world's biggest money managers

• COMING UP: The Oct 2nd US jobs report may spark a gold breakout; watch oil, USD, and yields in the interim



Gold has been lacklustre so far in September 2026.



Here's a quick recap of gold's performance of late:

• So far in September: -3.2% month-to-date

• At time of writing on Fri, Sept 25: Gold set for 4th weekly decline over the past 5 weeks.

This is in stark contrast to the precious metal's performance last month (Aug 2026) when it soared +9.7% to post its biggest monthly advance since Jan 2026!



Even after we cited a potential trading range of 4168.50 - 4463.50 for the week prior (Sept 14-18, 2026), as shown to us by the Bloomberg model, spot gold has refused to hit either target over the past 2 weeks.

Instead, XAUUSD has been sandwiched into an even tighter trading range, evidenced by the convergence of its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) - 2 widely-followed technical indicators.

Trade Gold perps now

And gold is clearly missing out on the recent surges for the likes of Bitcoin, and even the Nasdaq 100 (stock index filled with big tech stocks) which hit a new record high just this week!



Why Has Gold Been Keeping Sideways in September (so far)?



Here are 2 key reasons that explain gold's lackluster performance of late:

• Markets expect the Fed to keep hiking rates

Recall that higher US interest rates tend to cool down demand for gold. And that's because the precious metal does not pay interest to investors who hold on to gold.

So, gold's appeal has waned following the Fed rate hike on Sept 16th - its first rate hike since 2023 - with markets predicting at least 3 more Fed rate hikes through next year.

• Rising oil, US dollar, and Treasury yields dampen gold's appeal

Rising oil prices push inflation higher, which raises the prospects of more Fed rate hikes.

With pairs like XAUUSD, the stronger dollar (USD: quote currency, right-side of the pair) weighs down the price of gold (XAU: base currency, left-side of the pair).

And with US Treasury yields at multi-decade highs, zero-yielding gold again is losing its appeal.



In short, as Bybit's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, shared with Reuters today (Fri, Sept 25th):

The zero-yielding precious metal has struggled against a cacophony of headwinds, including persistent upside inflation risks, runaway Treasury yields, and a hawkish Fed.



Gold's spot price masks resilient demand



To be fair, despite the lacklustre spot prices, there has been resilient demand for the precious metal:

• ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have net bought 1.81 million ounces of gold so far this year, with current holdings now at their highest levels since March 3rd, 2026.

• In August, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) added 650,000 ounces of gold to its holdings - the most since 2023, also marking 22 consecutive months of purchases

• Even some of the world's biggest money managers, from Amundi (Europe's biggest asset manager) to Fidelity, and BNP Paribas, also added to their holdings



What's next for Gold?



Over the coming week, bullion bulls wishing for immediate relief will have to hope for:

• a sustained easing of geopolitical tensions, even as the US and Iran are reportedly exploring a phased deal to re-ope the Strait of Hormuz

• surprise dovish signals from the scheduled Fed speak (speeches by Fed officials)

• and a weaker-than-expected US jobs report on Friday, October 2nd.

Weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls (NFP) figures next Friday could be the catalyst for a gold breakout.

In the meantime, we adhere to the 4168.50 - 4463.50 targets set since Mon, Sept 14th, while keeping a watchful eye on oil prices, the US dollar, and Treasury yields in the interim.





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.