LMT Stock Price Prediction 2026: Analyst Targets

2026 Update: The Original Bull Case Arrived Before Year-End

This LMT stock forecast was updated on October 27, 2026. Market data are through October 26, the latest completed U.S. trading session. Financial results are for Lockheed Martin's quarter ended September 27, 2026, reported on October 22.

LMT closed at $635.20, with a $437.25–$692.00 52-week range and a market capitalization of approximately $146.734 billion. The share price had already entered the original article's $630–$650 bull-case range, while exceeding its approximately $578 base-case target.

The operating outcome was less straightforward. Lockheed Martin raised its 2026 outlook, but its diluted EPS guidance of $30.35–$30.75 remained below the original base-case assumption of $33–$35. At the same time, backlog expanded far beyond the old $160 billion assumption to a record $292.0 billion.

The table shows why a forecast should separate the stock price from business assumptions. LMT reached the bullish price range even though expected EPS did not reach the original bull or base case. Backlog growth, higher sales, defense demand, and valuation expansion affected the result.

Eligible users can review the LMT-US real-stock page on Bybit. Availability, market hours, fees, custody arrangements, corporate-action treatment, and shareholder rights depend on the specific product terms and jurisdiction, which should be reviewed before placing an order.

The remainder of this article treats the former 2026 scenarios retrospectively and focuses on the information still relevant for the final months of the year. It does not present the original estimates as current forecasts.

LMT Stock Forecast 2026: Current Snapshot

The average analyst target was only about 1.6% above the October 26 close. Analyst targets are time-sensitive estimates based on different earnings, budget, contract, and valuation assumptions. They are not guaranteed outcomes.

What Does Lockheed Martin Do?

Lockheed Martin Corporation is a global defense technology company headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland. It serves the U.S. government and international customers through four operating segments:

• Aeronautics: F-35, F-16, C-130 and related aircraft and sustainment
• Missiles and Fire Control: PAC-3, THAAD, GMLRS, Precision Strike Missile and other missile systems
• Rotary and Mission Systems: Sikorsky helicopters, radar, naval and mission systems
• Space: satellites, strategic systems, missile defense and space programs

Government contracts can provide long-term revenue visibility, but they are subject to appropriations, negotiations, performance requirements, termination rights, and changes in national priorities. Backlog is therefore contracted work expected to convert into revenue over time, not guaranteed profit or immediate cash.

James D. Taiclet serves as chairman, president, and chief executive officer. LMT is also an S&P 500 constituent.

Lockheed Martin Q3 2026 Results

Lockheed Martin reported growth in all four segments for the quarter ended September 27, 2026.

Sales and earnings improved while quarterly free cash flow declined from the prior-year period. This illustrates why one headline number does not define the quarter. Revenue, profit, cash conversion, contract assets, and backlog should be evaluated together.

The record backlog included $52.5 billion associated with a multiyear award for PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors. Missiles and Fire Control backlog reached approximately $142.5 billion, making it the largest backlog segment at the quarter-end cutoff.

Lockheed Martin's Updated 2026 Guidance

After Q3, management raised parts of its financial outlook:

Business-segment operating profit and free cash flow are non-GAAP measures. The company defines free cash flow as cash from operations less capital expenditures.

The revised ranges are more useful than the former editorial estimate of $33–$35 in adjusted EPS because they come directly from management after nine months of 2026 results. Actual full-year results may still fall outside guidance.

Actual Results vs. the Original 2026 Forecast

Share price

The original base case centered on approximately $578, with a bullish range of $630–$650. The October 26 close of $635.20 placed LMT inside the bull range and about 9.9% above the old base midpoint.

This does not prove that the former bull-case reasoning was correct. A price target can be reached for different reasons than the model anticipated, and the stock can move again before year-end.

Earnings per share

The former base case assumed $33–$35 of adjusted EPS. Lockheed Martin's updated diluted EPS guidance was $30.35–$30.75. Differences between GAAP and adjusted measures may explain part of the gap, but the old price-target calculation should not be reused with the current figures.

At $635.20 and trailing EPS of $28.16, the stock traded at 22.56 times trailing earnings. That is materially above the old article's approximately 17 times forward-multiple framework.

Backlog

The original forecast cited more than $160 billion of backlog. Lockheed Martin ended Q3 2026 with $292.0 billion, up from $193.6 billion at the end of 2025. A large PAC-3 award drove much of the increase.

Backlog supports revenue visibility, but it does not convert into sales at once. Investors still need to examine funding, delivery schedules, margins, working capital, and cancellation or renegotiation rights.

F-35 delivery assumptions

The original article expected broad TR-3 normalization and 80–110 annual deliveries depending on the scenario. Lockheed Martin delivered 43 F-35s in Q3 2026 and 94 during the first nine months, compared with 143 in the first nine months of 2025.

Despite the lower delivery count, Q3 Aeronautics sales rose 13%, helped by higher F-35 production and sustainment volume and C-130 activity. Deliveries, revenue recognition, production work, and cash timing do not always move together.

LMT's Four Business Segments in Q3 2026

Missiles and Fire Control produced the fastest sales growth, supported by production ramps in PAC-3, THAAD, GMLRS, and Precision Strike Missile programs. Aeronautics remained the largest revenue segment.

The mix matters to the outlook. Faster missile production can increase sales and backlog while also creating supplier, labor, inventory, and execution demands. Aeronautics remains exposed to F-35 contract terms and delivery timing.

F-35 Lots 20–22: A Current Contract Risk

The old forecast focused heavily on TR-3 delivery holds. At the October 2026 cutoff, a more current issue was contract authorization and funding for F-35 Lots 20 and higher.

Lockheed Martin said costs on the Lot 20 advance-acquisition contract began to exceed current contractual authorization and funding during Q3. Without additional authorization and funding from the U.S. government, future operations, cash flow, and financial condition could be negatively affected.

This is not the same as assuming the F-35 program will be cancelled. It is a negotiation and funding risk involving timing, terms, working capital, and cost recovery on a major program.

Defense Demand and the Record Backlog

Lockheed Martin's backlog reflects demand across aircraft, missiles, mission systems, and space programs. International defense spending, munitions replenishment, missile-defense demand, and U.S. modernization programs can support orders.

The $292.0 billion total was distributed as follows:

Geopolitical tension can accelerate procurement, but it should not be converted into a simple stock-price formula. Orders require appropriations, negotiation, production capacity, delivery, and acceptable margins before they contribute to financial results.

LMT Dividend Outlook for 2026

Lockheed Martin raised its dividend for the 24th consecutive year. Yahoo Finance showed a forward annual dividend of $14.40 per share, equal to an indicated yield of approximately 2.27% at the October 26 close.

The original article projected an annualized dividend of $13.50–$14.00. The $14.40 forward rate exceeded that range. It is an annualized run rate, not necessarily the cash amount received during calendar 2026.

Dividend durability depends on earnings, cash flow, capital spending, debt, pension needs, acquisitions, contract working capital, and board approval. Q3 free cash flow was $3.0 billion, while management's full-year outlook was $7.8–$8.0 billion. Dividends are not guaranteed even when a company has a long increase record.

Analyst Targets and What They Mean

Yahoo Finance's October 26 analyst snapshot showed:

The wide range reflects uncertainty about demand, execution, margins, contract terms, capital returns, and valuation. On October 26, JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating and raised its target from $620 to $665. One firm's action should not be treated as consensus or a recommendation.

The old article repeated third-party analyst aggregators and firm-by-firm targets that were dated Q1 2025. The updated approach uses one dated consensus snapshot and avoids implying precision that the estimates cannot support.

LMT Valuation: What the Market Is Pricing

At the cutoff, LMT's trailing P/E was 22.56, calculated from a $635.20 price and $28.16 trailing EPS. A higher multiple can reflect expectations for backlog conversion, cash flow, and sustained defense demand. It also creates downside risk if margins, contract funding, or deliveries disappoint.

P/E should not be compared mechanically with the S&P 500 or defense peers without aligning the earnings period and accounting basis. Forward estimates, trailing GAAP results, and adjusted earnings are different inputs.

Free-cash-flow yield can add another perspective, but it also requires a consistent period and treatment of working-capital swings. Lockheed Martin's 2026 guidance of $7.8–$8.0 billion in free cash flow is forward-looking and should not be treated as completed cash generation.

Risks to the Remaining 2026 Outlook

Contract authorization and working capital

F-35 Lot 20 costs exceeding authorization could pressure future cash flow if negotiations do not provide timely funding and acceptable terms.

Backlog execution

The record backlog requires production capacity, skilled labor, suppliers, materials, and quality control. Delays or cost overruns can reduce the value of growth in orders.

Fixed-price contracts

Lockheed Martin bears more cost risk when actual spending exceeds assumptions on fixed-price work. Complex development and production programs can generate unfavorable profit adjustments.

Government dependence

U.S. government contracts can be delayed, modified, audited, or terminated for convenience. Continuing resolutions and changes in priorities can affect awards and revenue timing.

Supply-chain and labor constraints

Missile and aircraft production ramps require components, microelectronics, materials, facilities, and trained workers. Supplier problems or inflation can pressure schedules and margins.

Valuation risk

The stock had already reached the old bull range. If future earnings, free cash flow, or guidance fall short, a lower valuation multiple could offset operating growth.

Geopolitical and export risk

International demand depends on national budgets, export approvals, foreign policy, and delivery capacity. Conflict can increase demand while creating operational and ethical complexity; de-escalation can change procurement urgency.

How to Research or Access LMT Markets

Start with Lockheed Martin's earnings releases, SEC filings, contract disclosures, backlog, segment margins, and cash flow. Distinguish awarded backlog from funded work and management guidance from completed results.

Eligible users can review available market and product information on the Bybit TradFi LMT page. Product availability and terms vary by jurisdiction.

Bybit also lists an LMTUSDT perpetual market. A perpetual is a derivative that provides price exposure; it does not represent ownership of Lockheed Martin shares and does not provide voting, dividend, or other shareholder rights. Leverage, liquidation, funding, basis, trading-hour, and jurisdictional risks require separate assessment.

Frequently Asked Questions: LMT Stock Forecast 2026

What was the original LMT stock forecast for 2026?

The original article used a bear range of $450–$480, a base range of approximately $562–$595, and a bull range of $630–$650. LMT closed at $635.20 on October 26, placing it inside the former bull range before year-end.

What is the current analyst target for LMT?

Yahoo Finance showed a $645.48 average on October 26, with a $498–$835 range. Targets are forecasts, not guaranteed outcomes.

What is Lockheed Martin's 2026 EPS guidance?

After Q3, management projected diluted EPS of approximately $30.35–$30.75 for 2026. This was below the old article's $33–$35 base-case assumption.

What is LMT's latest backlog?

Lockheed Martin reported $292.0 billion of backlog at September 27, 2026. Approximately $142.5 billion was in Missiles and Fire Control, including a major PAC-3 award.

Has the original LMT bull case occurred?

The share price reached the original $630–$650 bull range. Several underlying assumptions did not develop exactly as modeled, so reaching the price range should not be treated as complete validation of the scenario.

Will Lockheed Martin raise its dividend again?

The company had increased its dividend for 24 consecutive years and showed a $14.40 forward annual rate at the cutoff. Future increases remain subject to financial performance and board approval.

Is LMT stock undervalued?

That cannot be determined from one ratio. LMT traded at 22.56 times trailing earnings, while the average analyst target was close to the market price. A valuation assessment should test backlog conversion, margins, cash flow, contract risk, and an appropriate discount rate.

Is an LMT perpetual the same as Lockheed Martin stock?

No. A perpetual is a derivative linked to price movement. It is not an NYSE-listed LMT share and does not confer ownership or shareholder rights.

Conclusion

The 2026 LMT stock forecast has moved from prediction to measurement. By October 26, the share price had reached the old bull-case range, backlog had risen to $292.0 billion, and Lockheed Martin had increased its sales, EPS, and free-cash-flow guidance.

The outcome also exposes the limitations of price targets. The stock reached a bullish price despite current EPS guidance remaining below the old base case. Investors evaluating the remaining 2026 outlook should focus on backlog execution, F-35 contract funding, segment margins, cash conversion, and valuation rather than reusing the original scenario probabilities.

Sources and cutoffs: Market price, range, market capitalization, P/E, EPS, beta, dividend, and analyst target data are from Yahoo Finance LMT through October 26, 2026. Financial results, backlog, segment figures, guidance, F-35 deliveries, and contract commentary are from Lockheed Martin's Q3 2026 earnings release, for the quarter ended September 27, 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or trading advice. Forecasts and analyst targets are uncertain, and investing in an individual stock can result in loss.